Scouting Arizona: The Proficiency of Palmer
Why you should keep believing in the veteran quarterback. Plus, the greatness of Patrick Peterson, the true value of Larry Fitzgerald, the rising star of David Johnson, and why Chandler Jones might not be the pass-rush solution the Cardinals need
1. The last time we saw Carson Palmer, he was hurling interceptions in the NFC championship blowout loss at Carolina, so it’s easy to forget that he’s coming off an MVP-caliber season. Palmer’s mistakes tend to be in the form of baffling interceptions, and those create ugly memories. That’s the downside of a quarterback willing to throw deep-intermediate anticipation passes into tight windows. But Palmer’s aggression at those deep-intermediate levels make up the backbone of Arizona’s offense, which is the most aggressive and proficient in football. Let’s not forget: On the overwhelming majority of Palmer’s deep-intermediate throws, he’s brilliant.
2. Palmer is also brilliant when unblocked blitzers are bearing down on him. He sees that a lot in Bruce Arians’ scheme because of all the empty backfield formations. The Cards have the NFL’s most diverse stable of “empty” packages, and last year they employed them more frequently than any NFC team. All a defense has to do is rush six—or even just five, depending on the alignment—and they’re guaranteed a free rusher. It’s Palmer’s job to recognize this and react.
3. Because of their O-line, the Cardinals will continue to be extra dependent on Palmer, both in pre-snap identification and in post-snap reaction. It’s an O-line that was inconsistent on the left side last year (tackle Jared Veldheer, guard Mike Iupati) and is now a toss-up on the right side, with raw 2015 first-rounder D.J. Humphries stepping in at tackle and an aging Evan Mathis at guard.
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Scouting Los Angeles: Let Goff Play
Unless the Rams think their O-line puts Goff in harm’s way, the rookie should be under center Week 1. Plus, what makes Gurley great, the crucial element Tavon Austin brings, and the best front four in football
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Scouting San Francisco: It’s Hyde or Nothing
As Carlos Hyde goes, so does the Niners offense. Plus, why Gabbert is the obvious choice at QB, the trouble with Chip Kelly’s receivers, and why NaVorro Bowman’s 2015 performance wasn’t as good as you might have thought
1. The decision to start Blaine Gabbert ahead of Colin Kaepernick is the biggest no-brainer in the NFL this season. Starting Gabbert is like choosing to eat a charred, misshapen hamburger. But starting Kaepernick is like choosing to eat a totally uncooked one. He’s raw enough to give Chip Kelly’s offense E. coli. Yes, Kaepernick is mobile, and in theory that’s a plus in Kelly’s scheme. But more important is a quarterback’s decisiveness. Kelly’s up-tempo and intertwined route combinations engender a quarterback getting the ball out promptly. Kaepernick has never shown the field-reading skills to do this. Gabbert, after replacing Kaepernick last season, showed these skills off and on. The concern with him is pocket poise. He doesn’t do well when things break down—and after a few breakdowns, he’s liable to start anticipating pressure that’s not there. Kelly’s scheme can naturally curtail some of this, though it’s on Gabbert to improve.
2. The foundation of Kelly’s offense is its perimeter running game. In his system, the key blockers are usually the guards and centers, which is unique. You must have great feet and quickness to play this position for Kelly. The Niners were atrocious at these spots a year ago, so it’s no surprise they traded into the back of the first round to draft Josh Garnett about a month after signing veteran Zane Beadles. Neither is a sure thing, but both offer much, much more hope than incumbents Andrew Tiller, Brandon Thomas and Ian Silberman.
3. Carlos Hyde is the most important player in this offense. (After all, a perimeter-based rushing attack requires a quality outside runner.) Hyde dropped from 235 to 220 pounds last season and showed flashes before being shelved after Week 7 because of a foot injury. If he doesn’t average 18 touches and at least 80 yards rushing a game, the Niners have no chance.
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Scouting Seattle: Finally Building Around Wilson
The new and improved Russell Wilson looked like a true franchise QB late last year. Plus, Thomas Rawls as a “poor man’s Adrian Peterson,” and perhaps the only hope opposing offenses have against Richard Sherman
1. Russell Wilson is the NFL’s most fascinating case study entering this season, his fifth as a pro. For his first three and a half seasons, Wilson was a sandlot style player who would abandon clean pockets in hopes of making a magical play out of structure. The results were good and bad. Wilson worked receivers open late in the down, but he also left a lot of open receivers on the field in the first place. Then, in late 2015, Wilson suddenly matured. Between Weeks 11 and 15, he threw 21 touchdowns versus just one interception while completing 69 percent of his passes to post a rating of 131.2. Operating primarily as a timing-based pocket passer. The Seahawks supported this by calling more spread formations and quicker timing dropbacks. In the playoffs, Wilson reverted back to his old ways at times, though not quite often enough to quash all hope. The Seahawks had been built around Marshawn Lynch and their running game. That’s changing. If Wilson is indeed a QB to build around, he’ll have to maintain his newfound pocket aptitude. And the beauty is that it won’t come at the expense of his sandlot playmaking powers. Those will always be there when needed.
2. The Seahawks are at their best when aligned in a 3×1 formation with the “3” side being a trio of wide receivers and the “1” side being a lone tight end. This was their key formation during the late-season stretch when Wilson got hot. This unbalanced set does several things: (1) It forces the defenses to reveal if it is man or zone coverage; (2) It sets up unique angles and spacing for Seattle’s zone running game, including the read-option; (3) It creates two different inside receiver spots on the trips side, which provides flexibility for deploying Doug Baldwin, who is a tenfold better receiver when he’s inside; and (4) It creates defined coverage looks against that lone tight end—an extra potent benefit if Jimmy Graham comes back healthy and is more comfortable in his second year with the club.
3. Thomas Rawls can be a poor man’s Adrian Peterson (in a good way). He is a violent lateral mover and finisher. The concern is how much his style jeopardizes his durability. The Seahawks share these concerns. That’s why they drafted three backs this year (C.J. Prosise, third round; Alex Collins, fifth round; and Zac Brooks, seventh round) and retained born again backup Christine Michael.
Oliver James
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