In an earlier article I exposed how Kurt Cousins had a better final 8 games than Russell Wilson and pondered that these were just freak stretch runs and regression will and should be expected. Freak stretch runs like what Nick Folols had in 2013 with the Eagles. Over 13 games that season Foles had 27 TDs and 2 INTs for a 119.2 rating. Foles also had a 7 TD game in 2013, which is better than Wilson has ever done in a single game. Everyone thought he was a legit QB as well, but now he can’t even keep Case Keenum from stealing his job.
This article will focus on number 1 defenses throughout the SB era. 49 of the 50 teams with the number 1 scoring defense have made the playoffs. Think about that for a second, all but 1 number 1 defense made the playoffs. Zero teams with the number 1 D went below .500. Basically, you can put a ham sandwich at QB and the defense will drag them into the playoffs and SB contention. 17 of the 50 teams had 2 or more different QBs starting for them throughout the season and could still make it to the playoffs. 14 of these number 1 defenses have won the Super Bowl.
Wilson has benefited from the number 1 scoring defense his entire career. If we take out the years the Seahawks had the number 1 D, we see that the number 1 defense wins the Super Bowl 30.4% of the time. Wilson has only won 25% of the time, which is obviously below avg and he drags down that average when his teams are included. In the only Super Bowl he “won” the defense didn’t need him to do anything. The defense and special teams outscored Manning and the Broncos. The defense and special teams stopped Manning from scoring. Wilson did nothing to win that game, he was just there. He was really no different from a Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Hostetler (backup QB), or McMahon. The year they asked Wilson to win the Super Bowl he choked. He couldn’t see the receiver getting blown up. He couldn’t see Butler driving on the ball. He didn’t audible to a more sure thing, like a real leader and winning QB would, like hand the ball to Marshawn. They asked him to be a real QB and leader and he choked.
The Ravens and Buccaneers didn’t give Dilfer and Johnson mega contracts for being ham sandwiches in Super Bowls. They let them go because they realized the number 1 D is what got them to the promise land. The Bears thought so little of McMahon they drafted a QB in the first round (Jim Harbaugh) a couple years later to replace him.
Wilson is also a few plays away from 0 Super Bowls. Good thing Sherman tips that pass to Malcolm Smith. Good thing Bostic blows it for the Packers or he would be the 4 int goat. Instead Hawk fans want to pretend he is the next GOAT. Even this year he was gifted an extra playoff win by the Vikings Kicker.
5 teams of the 50 have not made it to the Divisional round and Wilson was a 27 yard FG miss away from being on the 6th. Rothlesburger is the only decent QB to lose in the WC, which I believe was to Tebow. Jaworksi and Hebert (2 times) were nothing special, but then again as a QB neither is Wilson. Heck, even Mark Sanchez made it to 3 AFCCGs and only had the number 1 D 1 time. Wilson making the playoffs and getting a win here and there is really nothing special when you have the number 1 D.
I know how everyone on this site loves Kaepernick and Wilson comparisons, so here we go. Wilson has had the privilege of the number 1 scoring D his entire career. In 2014 the 49ers had the 10th ranked scoring D and SF finished 8-8. 8-8 is still better than 2-4, more on 2-4 in a bit, with a top 7 defense. 2013 the Niners lost in the NFCCG with the number 3 defense. In 2012 the Niners lost the SB with the number 2 defense. Imagine if Kaep had the number 1 defense he would probably still be a relevant front running QB like Wilson. As the defenses declined so did the distance Kaepernick took SF. As you can see in the chart, Wilson won with the best of Seattle defenses and didn’t accomplish as much as they declined.
Earlier in the season Wilson was 2*-4 and the Seahawks had the number 7 scoring D and people were thinking it was the end for Seattle. The * is because of the Detroit “win”. Number 7 still isn’t bad though, but Wilson is. The top 8 scoring defenses in the NFL made the playoffs this year. Wilson was obviously under-performing and was holding his team back. Houston finished tied with AZ at number 7 and couldn’t pick a QB all season. The Jets were the only team in the top 12 to not make the playoffs. The Rams were 13th. Washington was 17th and the worst D to make the playoffs, but they had a QB that outplayed every other QB in the NFL over the final 8 games.
If you want further proof of Wilson entirely relying on his D to carry him along there is one final stat to point out. Wilson was 1-6 vs teams that scored 25 or more points this year and 1-13 overall. The year Wilson won the SB the Seahawks lost the only game the D allowed 25 points or more. Time for more Kaeparisons. Kaep was 0-5 this year in the same scenario but with a far worse defense to prop him up. Kaep is 4-12 overall vs teams that score 25 points or more. The year that Kaep lost the Super Bowl every playoff team scored more than 25 points vs the Niners. If that happened to Wilson he wouldn’t have had the chance to lose the Super Bowl because he would have been out in the Divisional Round. Pretty sad that a QB that most of us deem horrible doesn’t need his defense to carry him as much as Russell Wilson needs the Seahawks D.
The Seahawks window will basically close when the Seahawks D declines, which looks like will be relatively soon. The mega-deal Wilson received created a rift in the locker room. The guys on defense know who made Seattle into a winner, yet Wilson got their money. They are upset and holdouts have and will happen again in the future. Players will leave in FA or demand trades to get the money they feel they earned, instead of seeing some fraud with it on a daily basis. Hawk fans like to point out that Kam hasn’t played as well and try to use him as a scapegoat, but their defense and team got instantly better when he returned. The Seahawks were not a number 1 D without Kam, but were with him no matter how you slice it.
I’d rather have the number 1 defense than a mediocre front running QB, wouldn’t you?
Micky Fast
Jesus, the obsession continues…