I’ve said for a while now that I feel like the Niners are locked in for 3-6 wins in 2016, there have teams that have gotten above 8 wins when nobody expected them to do so. Notably Chip Kelly’s Eagles accomplished that feat in 2013. You can always say “highly unlikely” or something along those lines, but in the NFL, nothing is ever impossible.
The 49ers are as big of a long shot to get to 8 wins as you will see, but if they are going to do it, getting it right in the following steps is crucial to success in 2016.
1. The 49ers offensive line allows less than 40 sacks this year
53 sacks given up tied for the second most in the league behind Cleveland, which gave Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert no chance to throw. This has to improve somehow. The 49ers made a step in the right direction and drafted Joshua Garnett and cutting Jordan Devey is a bonus. However replacing Alex Boone is a tall order, considering he was one of their better linemen. If Garnett steps in right away and outperforms Boone and Devey’s replacement does better than him (basically a guarantee), the 49ers’ offensive line should improve. However, getting rid of Erik Pears will also help.
2. Kaepernick returns to his 2012 level
When Kaepernick came onto the scene, he surprised everyone with his amazing skill set. It has been a steady decline since then, bottoming out with his pathetic and injury riddled 2015 campaign. Gabbert played much better last year and showed more heart, but he’s still a stopgap at best. Kaepernick does not have an elite defense to carry him anymore and in order for the 49ers to get over .500, he needs to return to the offensive force he once was. AND NO MORE TUNNEL VISION. For all of Chip Kelly’s flaws, he at least knows how to work with quarterbacks. If Kaepernick buys into the new system and excels, the 49ers’ offense will be golden.
3. The 49ers have an offense in the top 10 in both points and yards
The 49ers scored far and away the least amount of points in the league and were second to last in total offensive yards. That cannot happen again. The 49ers defense is not what it was in the Harbaugh days, so their offense needs to carry them to victory. Their talent level is very low and they do not have any good receivers outside of Torrey Smith, but they do have an offensive minded coach. In order to get to .500 or better considering the dearth of talent, the 49ers need to figure out a way to move the football, and more importantly score.
4. Show some consistency on defense
Safe to say with Kelly in charge, defense will not be the 49ers’ area of strength. However, getting DeForest Buckner was a steal. I felt he was the best player overall in the draft and his skill set should immediately help a weakened 49ers front line. Getting pressure on the quarterback and stopping the run will be keys to the 49ers not finishing as bad on defense as a year ago. If the 49ers come out with a consistent effort and better play from the front 7, that should be enough for an offensive minded team.
5. Improve red zone efficiency to at least 50%
We love you Phil Dawson, but the less you are on the field, the better. The 49ers ranked dead last in touchdowns scored on offense in 2015 and had a red zone efficiency ranking worse than all but Cleveland. This problem also plagued them in 2014 as they ranked 29th in RZE. 43% will not cut it again. 50% is even on the low side, but that is the absolute minimum they need to get to. Otherwise, a losing record is all but guaranteed.
The 49ers have to prove the doubters like myself wrong. Their talent is among the lowest in the NFL according to most analysts and had an another pathetic offseason. I still feel they are at least a year away from getting back 8 wins or more. But it is the NFL and anything is possible. If the 49ers are to do it in 2016, they have to get it right in the above areas. If they do, we will be breathing sighs of relief here in the Bay Area. There will probably be less calls for York and Baalke’s heads as well.
Ken Bone Thugs N’ Harmony aka MB3
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