A Magnum Opus by RAS
Russell Wilson and the Disastrous Consequences of Overconfidence.
“It can be beneficial to have others believe you are better than you are and the best way to do this is to deceive yourself.”
–Dr. Vivek Nityananda, Institute of Neuroscience, Newcastle University
“Why can’t I be the best quarterback to ever play the game one day?”
–Russell Wilson, game manager QB
Introduction
In a now deleted post on Spiked Kool-Aid dated back to late 2013 I argued that the NFC West figured out the miniature sized wonder known as Russell Wilson. Revered as a bite-sized version of God in the Pacific Northwest, my analysis russelled the jimmies of many Wilson fanatics at SKA who’ve been die-hard fans of the Seahawks franchise since 2002, the year most of them believe professional football began.
Three weeks ago after Seattle’s soul crushing defeat against Tony Romo’s Cowboys I re-engaged this point on Field Gulls, a Seattle Seahawks football blog belonging to the Northwest Bubble. After noticing that Dallas successfully implemented many of defensive stratagems and techniques San Francisco and Arizona adapted to shut down the Smurfish passer in their previous engagements I argued that Dallas’ domination of Seattle’s offense not only meant the NFC West figured Little Russell out but also that the entire NFL was beginning to catch onto his act as well.
Instead of being congratulated for educating Wilson’s cult of worshippers about their own midget quarterback I was subjected to a slew of personal attacks, slanderous accusations, and outright verbal abuse. But my objective was to enlighten a Seahawks fanbase about a very important reality everyone of them should understand – the Seahawks offense is in major trouble because their QB is being successfully schemed. And the aim of this article is to illustrate how a statistical analysis of the past 3 games bear my hypothesis out.
A Tale of Two Offenses
It would be an understatement to say the Seahawks offense has not looked very good since the Cowboys debacle. In the past three games against the Dallas, St. Louis, and Carolina defenses Seattle’s offense averaged a woeful 18.3 points scored per game – a development which is especially problematic for two particular reasons.
First, Russell Wilson is a game manager whose offenses have historically done very poor when asked to carry games. Wilson’s record in games where his defense gives up 17 points or less is 25-2 as opposed to his subpar 7-10 record when they give up 18 points or more. If the lack of scoring in Seattle isn’t fixed soon then their team’s chances of winning games are diminished with a defense that is surrendering 20.6 points per game this season. No wonder then that Seattle’s record in the last three game span is 1-2, with a final miracle drive in Raleigh, NC saving them from losing all three contests.
Secondly, and more evidently, not one of the defenses the Seahawks faced in the past three games are particularly any good. According to Advanced Football Analytics both the Rams and Panthers defenses have performed near the bottom of the league (with only the Buccaneers, Saints, and Falcons ranked lower) while the Cowboys are measured a little over the NFL average. If one mediocre and two very poor defenses can hold Seattle to an average of 18.3 points per game then what does that say about the direction their offense is heading?
Many Wilson apologists have pointed to the lack of weapons in the Seattle WR corps, porous offensive line, or inordinate number of offensive penalties the little guys has had to suffer so far in 2014. But these factors didn’t stop Seattle’s offense from averaging 27.5 points per game in first the four games of the season against Green Bay, San Diego, Denver, and Washington before their debacle against Dallas. Needless to say, the NFL season has been rather schizophrenic so far for Seattle- the best of offenses and now the worst of offenses.
The Smaller, Whiter Michael Vick
So what happened? Why so much offensive fail during the latter part of the Seattle Seahawks season after such a hot start? Here is where we enter Oompa Loompa Land. In order to truly understand the stark reversal of fortune for Seattle’s offense you must understand how Dallas’ success was predicated upon containing Russell Wilson within a pocket into the middle of the field, where the evidence proves he is least likely to complete big play passes. By rushing 4 and dropping 7 into coverage so as to pocket contain Wilson from scrambling even poor to mediocre defenses are now able to marginalize Wilson’s effectiveness as a passer. In the majority of these cases Wilson is choses three types of options – 1.) the small to moderate quick slant, screen, or checkdown pass 2.) move laterally until the pocket breaks down whereupon he will throw the ball to the sidelines 3.) or seek for a running lane to run the ball. When he does take chances down the middle of the field in pocket contain the results tended to be rather unfavorable. Consequently, Wilson has relied upon his legs to occasionally take advantage of this scheme on high leverage downs, exploiting how far off LBs are playing from the line of scrimmage to exploit the edges and soft underbelly of opposing defenses.
The upshot of this exposure of the weakness is DangeRuss’ game has evidenced itself in a very telling statistic – Russell Wilson is averaging more yards per rush (8.2) than per pass (7.2) this season for the first time in his professional football career. In short (pun intended), Russell Wilson has become a smaller, whiter Michael Vick. And even worse, this trend has become even more pronounced the last three games as defenses have more effectively schemed Wilson towards pocket passer containment. In that span, our oreo snack has produced a game manager-like 6.47 yards per completion, a Jim Brown-like 10.2 yards per carry, a terribly pedestrian 3:2 TD:INT ratio, and a Trent Dilfer-like 78.4 passer rating. Whenever one makes the mistake of trying to enter a rational debate with a Seahawks fan regarding Russell Wilson, his cult always repeats these very statistical categories to make the case he is an elite quarterback. But looking at these numbers it becomes painfully clear where the blame for Seattle’s recent offensive performance and win record belongs.
The 2014 season has been a year of moderate transition for the Seahawks offense, one which was initiated due to Pete Carroll’s growing confidence in his Lilliputian quarterback and the inevitability of workhorse running back Marshawn Lynch leaving Seattle. As a result, the responsibility for carrying the Seahawks offense has slowly shifted to Wilson. The Tiny Dancer has averaged 29.5 passes attempted per game this year, and this trend has especially picked as Wilson averaged passing the ball 32 times the last three games. But such a transition is being complicated by a major dilemma – namely that such an increase in pass attempts this season has been simultaneously accompanied by a marked decrease in pass production. Wilson’s productivity as a passer has precipitously declined from its 2013 level – when Seattle’s offense ranked as the 6th most productive passing offense per attempt – to 21st in the league.
Conclusion: The Disastrous Consequences of Overconfidence
The underlying logic behind Petey’s decision to hand Russell Vick more offensive responsibility this season is straightforwardly simple: better to begin the transition towards a post-Beastmode offense now, before free agency, to gauge how valuable their franchise quarterback is really worth without the help of a top-tier runningback shouldering most of the load on offense. Wilson’s agent already has a history of letting the Seahawks know in no uncertain terms that his client deserves a raise, and one is left to wonder about the wisdom of the Seahawks front office in paying too steep of an asking price for a quarterback who already looks exposed. In analyzing the pitfalls of overconfidence, a recently conducted study warned against “disastrous consequences” for organizations when “too many people overrate themselves” and “deceive others about their abilities.” With Seattle already overpaying dearly for the disaster that was Percy Harvin and other players like Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman underperforming so far in the 2014 season after receiving hefty new contracts, one wonders how many more disasters of overconfidence their franchise can absorb. With Wilson losing the majority of games where his defense surrenders 18 or more points (an increasing occurrence) and rushing for more yards per carry than he passes for per completion the Seahawks are in a potential bind. For even if they don’t feel Wilson deserves what he’ll ask from them come free agency some other team will step in and pay him what the market dictates a Super Bowl winning quarterback of his caliber deserves.
SacSig
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