– Or why the Mariners Cannot Win at Home
I was asked to come up with an article on why the Mariners cannot win at home. Unless I am mistaken, the Mariners are only 2 games under 500 at home, but this is significant as they are one of the best teams in all of baseball. I admit my baseball knowledge is still limited, but I decided I am whiling to take on this task. I think it is appropriate to look at this two different ways. The emotional side (also known as illogical, eye test, or gut feeling) and the analytical side (also known as illogical, statistical, or “use numbers to prove my case”.)
Let us start with the emotional side. It is baseball. There are a lot of games in baseball. Some games are going to be good, some bad. Players are going to have good game, and some bad games. Although I get rather emotional during really good games/plays or really bad games/plays they are a small part of a long baseball season. Instead I will focus on the emotional consistencies. The biggest problem I have, and the biggest difference I see between home games and away games is base hits. This sounds analytical, but stick with me. I am not talking about batting averages but rather the approach batters are taking when playing at Safeco Field. How many times have we seen runner on base with no outs, as player after play tries to hit it out of the park? How often does that work when at home? Not often. Our “home advantage” is that we play in a pitchers park. Hits that would result in home runs in other parks more often than not = pop outs on the warning tracks. Hit a damn base hit! A run is a run, you do not need to pop out on the warning track every at bat. There are only a couple of players that should be swinging for the fences, and even then not every at bat. Situational batting is key. This is different at other parks, so this strategy can be modified depending on the ball park. I do not think this is all that difficult..
Time to move to analytical. This is my weakest part, as I do not even understand half of the baseball stats that are available. And even the ones I think I know, I probably do not know. Obviously in the true nature of SKA, I will not let that slow me down at all. I tried comparing pitchers ERA’s, batting averages, and the other 3 stats I think I know and how they relate to home games verses away games. I am having problems finding stats that point to problems at home, outside of maybe RISP. This would potentially help back up my emotional theory, but there is likely more to this stat then meets the eye. There was one glaring thing I noticed as I looked at all of the box scores of every game we lost at home. 100% of them, the visiting team scored more runs than the Mariners. Obviously this is a problem, and needs to be corrected ASAP.
If we combine the emotional side with the analytical side, I think it is clear what needs to happen. The Mariners need to play Safeco Field more strategically, and concentrate on base hits. This will of course equal more runs, which will help close the gap between runs scored and runs allowed. Now that this difficult nut has been cracked, I suspect the Mariners will still lose at home from time to time. However I am sure the front office is paying attentions here, so they will be going on an epic winning percentage, starting with sweeping the Rangers this weekend.
I know that some of you only come for the updates, I did not want to disappoint. Here are the update!
Zorstique’s Mariners Update of the Day: – 6/6/2016
The Mariners were tied for 1st place Friday, before starting a 3 game series against the Rangers, who were also lied for 1st place. All year long the Mariners were on fire when on the road, so naturally they lost all 3 games this weekend. The Mariners do have some key injuries right now, but that does not appear to be the problem. Starter pitchers are the problem right now. The Mariners starters have been giving up multiple runs in the first couple innings (Iwakuma actually did not fair as bad last night, but that is one game.) The Mariners offense cannot get 14 runs late in games every night no matter how much I wish they would. There is still plenty of time to get this right, but I do not see the Mariners winning the World Series if they give up 3-7 runs in the first innings during the playoffs.
Zorstique’s Mariners Update of Yesterday: – 6/8/2016
(Please note this is a day old, as I was sick yesterday) The Mariners lost again 3-1, making it 4 loses in a row. A couple of errors (including one at home plate) helped the Mariners lose what could have been a really close pitching contest. James Paxton actually did a really good job pitching, coming back strong after his dismal first start. James consistently was throwing fast balls in the high 90’s, even topping out at 101. Apparently he changed his throwing motion in the off season, and it took him a game to get warmed up. In other pitching news, Edwin Diaz was called up from Triple-A to make his major league debut. He saw 3, he retired 3. This kid threw one ball, and a bunch of strikes, in the 100 range. He looks promising.
Zorstique’s Mariners Update of the Day: – 6/8/2016
Mariners win 7-1 over the Cleveland Indians, thus keeping in the race to take the series with a win tonight. A freshly shaved Wade Miley pitches seven scoreless innings, allowing only 4 hits, 2 walks and struck out 3. This was a much better performance than the fully bearded Miley who last gave up 9 runs and 12 hits before the 5th inning ended. Cruz hit 2 home runs, bringing in 3 runs himself. In the 4th with 2 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Adam Lind hit the ball right into an easy double play. However they were not even able to get the one out they needed, as the SS just held onto the ball looking confused, which brought in a run. Then Steve Clevenger smacked a 2 run double, followed by a 2 run triple by Sean O’Malley. (Note I was later reminded that this is a 4 game series, thus my opening statement is not possible.)
Zorstique’s Mariners redemption of the Day: – 6/9/2016
Taijuan Walker/Chris Iannetta. I brought up yesterday that Walker’s last 7 games has really hurt his ERA, and that last night would be his rebound. I am never right, so I just wanted to point out that I finally got lucky. Taijuan pitched 8 innings, gave up only 3 hits (all singles), no runs, no walks (although there was one balk, which I still do not understand), and 11 strike outs. This is exactly what Walker needed to bounce back. On the other side of the ball, let us talk about that bum (super star) catcher that helped lose the first game of this series with an error at home plate. He was put in time out game 2, and came back for some redemption himself. Not only did he help call Taijuan’s masterful game plan, he also got a few hits last night. 3 at bats, 2 home runs, a double that was inches away from his 3rd home run, 4 RBI’s and 2 runs. Which redemption is bigger? Perhaps we should have a Mariners redemption discussion today!
Zorstique’s Mariners Update of the Day: – 6/10/2016
Yesterday’s game was all sorts of interesting. And by interesting I mean hard to watch. It was as if the starting pitching and bullpen did everything they could to lose the game, while the defense did everything they could to prevent the pitching’s diabolical plan. On the other side of the ball, it appears that the Mariner’s game plan was to ensure that no runs would be scored, but Robinson Cano said fuck you, I will score if I want to. Long story short, the Mariners lost 5-3 thus preventing themselves from hitting 500 at home before sweeping the Rangers this weekend.
Bad Hombre™