“Then I learned to play some lead guitar
I was underage in this funky bar
And I stepped outside to smoke myself a jay
And when I come back to the room
Everybody just seemed to move
And I turned my amp up loud and I began to play
And it was late in the evening
And I blew that room away!”
“Late in the Evening”, (c) 1980 by Paul Simon
It’s getting late in the season. Is anyone going to blow us away?
The somehow-still division leading Ravens look exceptionally vulnerable (dare I say broken?) The same can be said of the Bengals, whose elation over soundly beating the rival Steelers two weeks ago lasted until the first quarter of a decisive blowout loss to the Chargers last week. The Steelers may have reclaimed a bit of pride in outlasting the Ravens Sunday night, but few think the win has actually transformed them into a contender (although in this division, who knows?) The lone remaining playoff hopeful is the Browns, who managed to escape any negative coverage last week by simply not playing at all.
It’s anyone’s guess from here on. Given the circumstances and the ever-expanding slate of injuries across the league, I would probably have to give the nod to the Bengals, whose slips and missteps seem more to be a byproduct of their collective youth than any systemic problems. Of course, this could change as soon as this weekend, when all four AFC North hopefuls will be in action, including two against each other.
These picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Thursday, December 9, 8:20pm, Fox/NFLN
The Steelers feel a bit better about themselves, having managed to stay on the fringes of the playoff race while beating a division rival. The Vikings undoubtedly feel much, much worse in light of last weeks’ improbable last-second loss to the previously winless Detroit Lions. One team feels vindicated, the other is surely angry and hoping to right the proverbial ship with a statement win. Enter the Steelers, who – as most fans will tell you – aren’t equipped to outscore teams; they generally opt to slow the game down considerably with good defense and short-range passing, and as their record shows, it works roughly half the time. I suspect it’s not going to work against the Vikings, who should see a lot of Steelers RB Najee Harris, if only to keep the Vikings’ 29th-ranked defense “honest”.
Minnesota normally has a wealth of riches on offense, including Pro Bowl WRs Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, although Thielen will most likely miss the game due to injury. Star RB Dalvin Cook is questionable to play with a dislocated shoulder, and his presence is crucial to the Vikings’ offensive success in setting up their excellent play-action formations and routes. The Steelers will counter with their basic alignment to account for the offensive balance the Vikings present, with, as always, an extra emphasis on applying QB pressure with DPoY candidate LB T.J. Watt. It might be a challenge given the eye-popping numbers Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has produced this season.
Steelers 24, Vikings 27
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (6-6)
Sunday, December 12, 1:00 pm, CBS
Observe the picture above. It’s pretty telling, because that’s probably how the Ravens offense will look all day Sunday.
The Browns are coming off their bye week, and before that, a nail-biting loss in Baltimore against these same Ravens, and it should be noted that the Ravens will be without another two starters in this Sunday’s rematch, including star CB Marlon Humphrey. The table is set, so to speak, for the Browns to issue a statement win against a bitter division rival and re-establish their credibility as a playoff contender.
They will succeed. Handily.
The Steelers may have officially snipped the tightrope the Ravens had been treading all season, for once denying them a last-second (stolen) win, which had been the Ravens’ MO until now. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, never one to handle a pass rush very well, is under constant siege this year, particularly in the last four weeks as teams are blitzing him relentlessly to force seemingly-inevitable mistakes. The Browns will surely do the same, and given the state of the Ravens’ patchwork offensive line, there’s little reason to think Jackson and the Ravens will survive, let alone win. Their makeshift rushing attack, consisting of Jackson, two league castoffs and a rookie UDFA that apparently cannot block or play special teams, is not enough to deter a pass rush, especially with the deep protection issues that are expanding weekly along the offensive line. Browns DE Myles Garrett will easily bolster his Pro Bowl credentials this week, as he’ll face little resistance attacking the QB from the likes of stone-footed Ravens LT Alejandro Villanueva or miscast probable RT Tyre Phillips.
Having had a week to rest. the Browns will have Pro Bowl-caliber running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt available and healthy, which, despite slowing this duo in Baltimore, spells doom for a Ravens defense that’s had increasing difficulty stopping key rushes due to injuries and poor play in the defensive interior. They simply don’t have the personnel available anymore to slow the Browns at any level. The biggest impediment to the Browns’ success this season has been the health of their offensive line and the at-times spotty play of QB Baker Mayfield, who’s surely appreciated his brief hiatus if only to let his ailing left shoulder rest for a bit. Starting RT Jack Conklin underwent season-ending surgery on his shoulder this week, so his absence will be an area to watch, especially with the loss of TE David Njoku to COVID-19 this week.
It won’t be close, folks. This is a mismatch in every conceivable way.
Ravens 13, Browns 35
San Francisco 49ers (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Sunday, December 12, 4:25 pm, CBS
The 49ers are smarting from their loss to the Seahawks last week, but this will provide a little extra motivation for them as they trek into Cincinnati to face the equally-smarting Bengals, who may have learned a few lessons about overconfidence last week. The 6-6 49ers should provide a stern test for the Bengals, who will have to contend with a fierce pass rush and a solid secondary, which limits many of the things the Bengals do well.
For all the accolades given to Bengals rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase, recently a real contender for the ORoY award, he’s fallen way off his initial torrid pace, having totaled 11 catches for 123 yards in the last three games. Chase still leads the Bengals in receiving yards, but his teammates, particularly WR Tee Higgins and TE C.J. Uzomah, have been forced to step up. It would be most helpful to QB Joe Burrow to have all of his weapons working Sunday, especially RB Joe Mixon, who has played exceptionally well of late and who provides cover for Burrow in the passing game.
The 49ers will ride the arm of QB Jimmy Garoppolo as far as they can, aided by the capable rushing of RB Elijah Mitchell, who at 4.6 YPC seems to be a solid fit for the ball-control offense the 49ers favor. TE George Kittle remains an excellent receiving option no matter where he lines up, and multi-purpose weapon Deebo Samuel must always be taken into account by opposing defenses. The biggest weapon the 49ers wield is undoubtedly on defense, where resurgent DE Nick Bosa has shown he’s clearly back to his exceptional rookie form.
49ers 26, Bengals 28
Go Team.
