“Now everybody’s dancin’ down the local armory
With a basement full of dynamite and live artillery
Temperature keeps risin’, everybody gettin’ high
Come the rockin’ stroke of midnight, the place is gonna fly!”
“One More Saturday Night” (c) 1972 by Bob Weir and Ice Nine Records
Or Saturday day, as the case may be. We’ve reached the point of full exposure by the NFL; Saturday games are always a nice diversion, especially for those of us that won’t miss college football. It certainly provides a lot more viewership for the NFL, who has the luxury of airing single games to the entire public in something other than a prime time scenario. The single game this week, of course, concerns the Browns, who have been accumulating COVID-19 cases this week, including today (more on this below).
The prospect of all four AFC North teams losing this week is very real, so does it really matter which day they play?
These picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-7) @ Cleveland Browns (7-6)
Saturday, December 18, 4:30 pm, NFLN
Nothing’s ever easy in Cleveland.
The Browns should’ve spent the week celebrating their win over the bitter division rival Ravens last Sunday. Instead, they’re in lockdown mode, having had a number of positive COVID-19 cases come to light in the last 24 hours, including to starting QB Baker Mayfield and head coach Kevin Stefanski. Stay tuned, as more reports of positive tests are being posted. There’s a slim chance Mayfield plays, but the odds of him posting two negative tests within a 24 hour period prior to 4:30 pm Saturday is problematic at best. It’s safe to assume backup QB Case Keenum will get the start, but given the loss of several receiving targets to COVID-19 as well, he may not have much to work with.
But consider the opponent. The Raiders appear to be in free fall, having lost five of their last six games. They’re traveling east. Regardless of COVID designations, the Raiders’ injury list is impressive, and while it’s probably been considered, the Browns would do well to run the ball…a lot. They’ll be down to their impressive stable of RBs to make a difference, and against a depleted Raiders team, they very well could.
Raiders 20, Browns 24
Tennessee Titans (9-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Sunday, December 19, 1:00 pm, CBS
Injury designations have not been officially released yet for Week 15, but it’s safe to assume the Titans will be without their two best weapons in RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown, both of whom have been earmarked for an eventual IR return. Still, they’re facing a wholly inconsistent Pittsburgh team, who’s miraculously managed to hover around a .500 record due to the savvy, “old man strength” of venerable QB Ben Roethlisberger and rookie RB Najee Harris, who should see better years than these in his future. As always, watch those two above all else – should the Steelers win, they’ll be the primary reason why.
But they probably won’t. The Steelers’ defense has been almost as inconsistent as the offense, having given up 36 or more points in three of their last four contests (including three losses). All-world OLB T.J. Watt, mentioned prominently as a potential DPoY candidate just a month ago, has spent a lot of time bouncing between the playing field and IR, and his absences have been arguably the biggest factor in Pittsburgh’s defensive breakdowns. Watt is tentatively expected to play this week, and it will matter against a battered Titans team overall.
Titans 27, Steelers 20
Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) @ Denver Broncos (7-6)
Sunday, December 19, 4:05 pm, CBS
Interesting game here, as the hardscrabble Broncos, left for dead earlier this season, remain viable in the playoff hunt despite having relatively few “blue chip” players and in a division with two (until recently three) other playoff contenders. Denver has predicated itself on efficient, timely offense and stingy defense, and that MO probably won’t change this week.
The Bengals have been slower of late, with QB Joe Burrow having thrown a lot of recent INTs, resulting in a renewed emphasis on the rushing attack and RB Joe Mixon. Mixon has mostly delivered this season, and he’ll be expected to again, facing the league’s 25th ranked run defense, yet #2 overall in points against. The Bengals’ vaunted WR corp not withstanding, this one will be won in the proverbial trenches.
Bengals 24, Broncos 30
Green Bay Packers (10-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Sunday, December 19, 4:25 pm, Fox
This game was flexed into a 4:25 slot a few weeks ago, and while it appeared to be a decent matchup then, it’s most assuredly not one now.
The Ravens remain the same broken offensive disaster they’ve been most of the season. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off an ankle injury and his status is still to be determined for Sunday. If he plays, he’ll undoubtedly be in “run like hell” mode due to the abysmal performances of his marginally-qualified offensive tackles and injuries to any conceivable personnel who could help, like oft-sidelined TE Nick Boyle, the “best blocking TE in the NFL” according to some. I’m actually thinking it would be best for Jackson to sit against a clearly superior team, as the Ravens simply have no shot to score at the same pace the Packers do. The Ravens will look to establish their rushing attack, which has been embarrassingly promoted as one of the best in the NFL. (It’s just not. Look it up.) I’m guessing any rushing progress will be the result of Jackson escaping the pocket a few times, and I suspect the Packers will be okay with that.
Packers QB and probable repeat NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is showing no signs of slowing down this year, having mustered his team through COVID outbreaks (including his own), myriad injuries and issues with the media. The only significant “out” designation reported thus far this week is for LT David Bakhtiari, and given Rodgers’ mobility and quick release, his absence isn’t expected to slow the team significantly. Simply, the Packers will face little resistance passing at will, as the Ravens’ secondary remains the second-most hard hit unit by injury on the roster. I’ve said it often lately, but they just don’t have the personnel to compete anymore.
Packers 31, Ravens 17
Go Team.
