“No sun comin’ through my windows
Feel like I’m livin’ at the bottom of a grave
No sun comin’ through my windows
Feel like I’m livin’ at the bottom of a grave
I wish you’d hurry up and execute me
So I can be on my miserable way.”
“I Don’t Live Today” (c) 1967, The Jimi Hendrix Experience
Losing out on the playoffs is no fun. In the case of the Ravens, they’ll very much fall out of playoff contention after leading the division for most of the season if they fail to win any of their remaining three games, which is a distinct possibility. Ditto the Browns with even more urgency, as they trail the division-leading Bengals and the Ravens by a single game and the Steelers by a half-game. The next three weeks will be very intriguing, as each win or loss carries significant playoff and seeding weight.
Hurry up and execute SOMEBODY, please.
These picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Cleveland Browns (7-7) @ Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Saturday, December 25, 4:30 pm, Fox/NFLN
I’ll make this brief: The Packers and probable league MVP Aaron Rodgers haven’t lost at home this season. The Browns are 2-4 on the road this year, and have yet to identify their starting QB for this game, let alone the multitude of other players sidelined last week by COVID-19 protocols. While their defense is adequate at best, the Packers’ ability to score at will is daunting to most teams (witness the clearly-under-pressure decision by the Ravens last week to go for a victory with a two-point conversion attempt instead of an easy PAT and overtime). Green Bay and Rodgers just do this to coaches, who seem to lose trust in their own personnel every time Rodgers walks on the field.
If the Browns are serious about winning this game – and goodness knows they should be – they need to take note of their last game, in which they finally employed RB Nick Chubb late in their eventual loss to the Raiders. Chubb proceeded to run through and around pretty much the entire Raiders defense while also setting up excellent play-action opportunities for then-QB Nick Mullens. Chubb was drawing the entire Raiders defense to his side, regardless of whether he was carrying the ball or not, which demonstrates how seriously defensive coordinators take him. His presence alone should make things a bit easier for the Browns should they use him often. Given their roster issues, they really have no choice.
Browns 24, Packers 35
Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Sunday, December 26, 1:00 pm, CBS
The battle for the division title should end with this game, but in a truly bizarre season, it may very well continue until all 18 weeks have been completed. That said, the Bengals are in the unique position (for them, anyway) of holding a division lead late due to their trouncing of the Ravens in Baltimore Week 7. The burning question in Cincinnati is whether they have the depth and experience to undertake a playoff push. There’s little doubt concerning the talent level on the team, particularly the offense, but the Bengals have a maddening tendency to lose focus and lose to inferior competition. I’m guessing this won’t happen at home against a division rival that’s unsure (as of this writing) who their starting QB will be.
Also of note is the Ravens’ glaring lack of quality secondary personnel, recently riddled with COVID-19 absences on top of notable season-ending injuries to three of the four starters in the defensive backfield. If the Bengals don’t put up at least 40 pass attempts, I’ll be very surprised.
The gutty Ravens – yes, I can call them that – managed to make last weeks’ mismatch exciting and close. Much of the credit goes to backup QB Tyler Huntley and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who devised and executed a deceptive game plan that didn’t curtail Huntley’s passing, as one would expect with a backup QB. Also of note was the fact the battered Ravens offensive line played a rare good game, keeping Huntley relatively clean and protected for the majority of the game while opening up some effective running lanes. Even if incumbent QB Lamar Jackson recovers from his sprained ankle in time to play this week, the gameplan should be similar to last weeks’ – control the clock and the football, and tire out the Bengals defense as much as possible.
Bring your gloves. This one could get chippy.
Ravens 20, Bengals 35
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
Sunday, December 26, 4:25 pm, CBS
Unfortunately for the rest of the AFC, the defending conference champion Chiefs appear to have corrected their defensive issues and a few offensive issues that plagued them earlier in the season. Kansas City has won seven in a row and now appear to be more multifaceted than previous versions. It should be noted that QB Patrick Mahomes isn’t consistently posting his typical eye-popping numbers this year, but he seems to have grasped the concept of timely offense – utilizing his considerable skills best when the team needs them most. In a league that’s ever-changing schematically and determined to break any new trends, this may be the last and most valuable lesson Mahomes needed to learn – to adjust.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, those adjustments will come at the expense of their defense, which, for all the abuse the team has taken for its obvious decline in talent and experience, has been THE reason the team has remained on the fringes of playoff contention. While many will also point to the contributions of QB Ben Roethlisberger, I doubt even Roethlisberger would agree – he’s simply taken, to be cliché, what defenses have been giving him, which hasn’t been much. While the Steelers will attempt to wear down the Chiefs with dink/dunk passes and short runs, the odds of limiting the Chiefs’ offensive attack are long.
Of note are the current COVID-19 absences of Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Both are projected to clear protocols before the game Sunday, but as we’ve seen, projections can be rendered meaningless rather quickly in this environment. Stay tuned.
Steelers 21, Chiefs 30
Go Team.
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