“All the people that you see in the night
Hold their dreams up to the light
The wild beast is searching for sight
And we are not going home.”
“The Joker and the Thief”, (c) 2005 by Wolfmother
Whoo, doctor.
While three of the four AFC North teams lick their wounds, the weeks’ lone victor must be wondering how their defense gave up 304 passing yards and two touchdown passes to a 35 year-old journeyman QB with four days’ roster experience. The Browns have experienced substantial letdowns on offense, including a recurring – and infuriating – tendency to abandon the run at the worst possible times. The Ravens started their eventual loss minus seven starters, several of whom were fill-ins for players long since placed on IR. And the Steelers…well, “inconsistent” may be too kind a term, but “lacking all cohesion” seems about perfect. Needless to say, no one’s comfortable. No one should be.
No one’s going home just yet.
These picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
Sunday, January 2, 1:00 pm, CBS
Right on cue, the Chiefs come to town to provide the stiffest possible test for Cincinnati’s defense. As noted above, the Bengals can’t be particularly happy with their defense despite their blowout win over a depleted Baltimore team; the Chiefs present a very different set of problems, including the uncanny timing and accuracy of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. To say their defense will be pressed is a vast understatement, as Kansas City appears to have fully regrouped from their early-season struggles and are playing their best football. Defensively, like most teams playing the Chiefs, the Bengals will probably deploy a spread zone and pray their CBs and LBs are up to the task of containing all pro TE Travis Kelce, who’s a probable return from the COVID-19 list this week, and blindingly-fast WR Tyreek Hill.
Offensively, the Bengals will look to negate Kansas City’s resurgent pass rush, featuring DE Chris Jones and former Steeler LB Melvin Ingram, with quick timing patterns and underneath routes. Look for a heavy dose of the running game and RB Joe Mixon early, if only to gauge how the Chiefs are deploying their resources. If both defenses are suspect, this one could turn into a proverbial “track meet” with the Bengals trotting out their formidable slate of wideouts as well.
Chiefs 35, Bengals 24
Los Angeles Rams (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
Sunday, January 2, 1:00 pm, CBS
This game was mercifully flexed out of a prime time slot by the NFL, and it’s hard to envision a more deserving candidate for that.
The Ravens, now beaten, downtrodden, unhealthy, injured and embarrassed, still have to show up and face the NFC West-leading Rams in all their glory and roster advantages. Without reciting the litany of injuries the Ravens have experienced, their only hope for a win against an excellent Rams defense led by all-world DE Aaron Donald and star CB Jalen Ramsey will be for battered Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, supposedly struggling with a sprained ankle, to return and recapture some of his former dominance in dictating his own balance of runs and passes. As Jackson hasn’t played in nearly three weeks, I find this scenario a little unlikely; the team will most likely see immediate backup Tyler Huntley get the start, possibly with holdover Josh Johnson in a backup role. As if it matters…
The Rams feature one of the most difficult QB-WR combinations to defend in the NFL, with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp connecting 132 times thus far; it’s entirely possible Kupp will break the single-season records for both receptions and receiving yards (1,734 yards as of this writing). The Ravens have little to no secondary presence at the moment, having lost their top three CBs and one starting S to injury. The Bengals were able to exploit this obvious deficiency to great effect, and there’s little doubt the Rams will do the same.
Rams 42, Ravens 20
Cleveland Browns (7-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
Monday, January 3, 8:15 pm, ESPN
Winding out the string or fighting for a playoff spot? Both of these teams could claim either plausibly.
The Steelers are presumably winding down the career of probable Hall of Fame QB Ben Roethlisberger, and they would like nothing more than to garner a final playoff appearance for him. That starts with beating Cleveland. The problems for the Steelers, as evidenced by their dismantling by the Chiefs last week, is they simply don’t have the talent level to assume any wins, let alone against a division rival fighting for its own playoff life. They’ll run a bit with RB Najee Harris and connect on some short, controlled passing routes as always. Look for more output from Pro Bowl snub WR Diontae Johnson in a quietly excellent season.
The Browns are looking for consistency. It’s become rote in Cleveland to say that. But the frequency of that consistency is what has to be most concerning to both the team and their fans. To wit; the team rushed for a collective average of 5.5 YPC against the Packers last week. RB Nick Chubb accounted for 126 yards, a touchdown, and a 7.4 YPC. On Cleveland’s final drive, in possession of all their timeouts, Chubb carried the ball three times for 18 yards – in the first three plays of the drive. The remaining playcalls were all passes, including the interception that eventually sealed the game. Needless to say, this is a notable strategic error by head coach (and playcaller ) Kevin Stefanski – the old adage of “go with what works” is still widely acknowledged in the NFL, and the Browns simply didn’t do that. Some consistency from drive to drive – even play to play – would be appreciated in Cleveland.
And so the Browns will walk into Pittsburgh with the same advantage – their rushing attack. The biggest question is whether they’ll use it correctly. In a perfect world, the Browns would throw their slate of ball carriers (Chubb, RB Kareem Hunt, RB D’Ernest Johnson) at Pittsburgh’s defense all day, as the Steelers’ rush defense is among the worst in the NFL. QB Baker Mayfield would do well to limit his turnovers, but it’s doubtful he was going throw four interceptions in a single game for two consecutive weeks.
Right?
Browns 28, Steelers 24
Go Team.
