“Where have all the people gone my honey
Where have all the people gone today
There’s no need for you to be worrying about all those people
You never see those people anyway.”
“(Walk Me Out in the) Morning Dew”(c) 1962, by Bonnie Dobson
The AFC North divisional lead has swung back and forth between the Ravens and the Bengals the last few weeks. The last few weeks, sports media has reacted in full hyperbolic mode with each lead change. When the Bengals delivered a signature win against the Ravens, they were instantly dubbed “the best team in the AFC” by several prominent outlets; never mind that the same outlets had crowned the Ravens with that very label just one week prior after they’d delivered an outsized win against the now-reeling Chargers.
I get the need to garner market shares and exploit fans for their wares if you’re in the media business. It’s how many outlets expand their profitability and exposure, and it’s not a new phenomenon, but it seems so…final now, as though every opinion, utterance or offhanded comment is a definitive benchmark truism about the subject at hand. Opinion “journalism” has become almost the scourge of the news business despite being wildly popular, and it’s just sad, as a sometime-member of said business, to witness its cheapening this way. I fondly recall the days when media outlets simply reported the facts without preference or a plethora of wildly divergent opinions. Next week: Social media and its sordid effects on sports. Also, me yelling at kids to get off my lawn again, possibly at gunpoint. Anyway…
These picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 7, 1:00 pm, Fox
Aside from the obvious jokes about a team in purple winning the game, this actually stacks up as a decent matchup. The Ravens were embarrassed on their home field two weeks ago, in which their secondary was abused for over 400 yards in almost every conceivable way. The bye week couldn’t have arrived at a better time for a team desperately needing personnel help, which they may see in the sizable forms of IR-returnees TE Nick Boyle and DE Derek Wolfe. Boyle is considered one of the premier blockers in the NFL at his position, so his return is particularly crucial to the fortunes of the Ravens and certainly to QB Lamar Jackson, who’s spent a significant portion of his 2021 season rushing runs and throws due to poor offensive line play. In this game, Jackson will continue to search for that run/pass balance. It’s hoped Boyle will give that process a few more nanoseconds to be effective.
Defensively, the struggling Ravens’ defense should have their hands full, given the Pro Bowl presence of Vikings RB Dalvin Cook and WRs Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. First-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has had trouble inputting solid game plans, with missed blocking assignments and general confusion usually the result, so it will be interesting to see how they deploy their resources against a suspect secondary and interior LB corp, whose frustration over their seemingly blue-chip draftees there has to be reaching a breaking point in light of ILB Malik Harrison’s absence this week due to a non-life-threatening gunshot wound.
Of course, neither defense has shined this season. There’s a lot of points to be had in this one.
Vikings 31, Ravens 34
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 7, 1:00 pm, CBS
This game is an exercise in media contrasts.
Unlike previous years, the Bengals are being taken seriously, perhaps overly so for a young team in search of some consistency. Few question the Bengals’ talent level, but as they’ve assembled some excellent squads in the past that underachieved, particularly in the playoffs, caution is warranted, even as the media rushes to crown them AFC darlings after each win (and as quickly jumps ship after a loss). The Bengals will undoubtedly continue their formidable offensive attack, centered around QB Joe Burrow spreading the field and opening rushing lanes for RB Joe Mixon. Against this Browns defense, it may be all they need, as the Browns have shown a propensity to surrender big plays at inopportune times. Of course, big plays are what the Bengals are beginning to excel in.
Even with their outsized controversy this week, the Browns remain a talented bunch themselves. LT Jedrick Wills and C J.C. Tretter are listed as questionable as of this writing, but if both are reasonably healthy and in uniform, it provides a huge boost to the Browns’ chances. Same for WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, who would be a reliable second option for embattled QB Baker Mayfield beyond normally-dependable WR Jarvis Landry. With another week to recuperate, it’s hoped the Browns will rediscover powerhouse RB Nick Chubb’s game-breaking influence; they’ve shown a puzzling tendency to abandon their formidable rushing attack if they trail early. As the Bengals tend to attack deep early with some success, this may be a scenario to watch.
Browns 24, Bengals 30
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, November 8, 8:20 pm, NFLN
The current line on this game is Steelers -6.5, and I can’t say I’m arguing with that.
To be blunt, the Bears are a mess. They’ve mismanaged rookie QB Justin Fields by handing him a conservative, predictable game plan that takes advantage of none of his obvious strengths, the most notable being his mobility. This has had a cascade effect on an overworked defense that spends 60-65% of every game on the field trying to mitigate the offense’s mistakes, while wasting the careers of defensive stalwarts like WLB Khalil Mack and ILB Roquan Smith (Mack remains questionable as of this writing and may miss a second consecutive game). There’s just not much to tout with this bunch this season, which may be looking at a complete front office overhaul in 2022 given the overmatched nature of head coach Matt Nagy’s puzzling, seemingly ill-advised decisions.
The Steelers are not fancy or complicated right now, but it seems they’ve settled on a formula that may allow them to produce a winning record this season, and it’s not wholly different from the attack they ran in 2019 in the absence of QB Ben Roethlisberger – shorten the field on defense and pass underneath often to open up a few running lanes for RB Najee Harris, who has benefitted from better offensive line play in recent weeks. This approach is actually well-suited to take down the Bears, as their defense will most likely be exhausted by halftime, leaving them open to a clock-killing, plodding attack, which amply describes the Steelers at the moment. I don’t see big points here for either team, but it’s pretty clear Pittsburgh has some distinct advantages. As stated above, that line looks pretty accurate.
Bears 13, Steelers 20
Go Team.
