Ranking the NFL’s Best General Managers

Now that that 2015 NFL Draft has come to a close, I thought it would be useful to spend some time analyzing some history and ranking our favorite (and least favorite) general managers. Everyone wants their favorite team’s general manager to handle the draft like an expert, and ensure that their team is drafting the next wave of future all-pros.

Pro Football Focus’ Andrew Healey did some in depth analysis of the 1997-2014 drafts and he concluded that teams generally have not shown a consistent ability to beat the draft and draft better players than the competition.  This is another way of saying that the draft is unpredictable and defies analytical models that guarantee success.  With that truth in mind, the teams that treat draft picks like lottery tickets, and acquire as many as possible, can capitalize on a market inefficiency and increase their chances of success.

In the date reproduced below, Healy estimates which teams have been surrendering (losing) draft value, and which teams have been maximizing (gaining) draft value.

“Here, I estimate how much value teams have acquired and given away in draft picks over the years. The amounts are large, enough to keep draft-value acquirers in the playoffs year after year, and to keep draft value giver-uppers consistently at the bottom of the league. And if the gap between teams in finding good players has largely disappeared, the gap between teams in acquiring draft pick value appears to be only growing larger.

For each team and year, I took the total value of additional picks that teams acquired and compared it to the picks that teams traded away. By looking only at the value of picks rather than the players involved, I am just looking to identify the teams that have traded to acquire draft value, and those that have ended up trading draft value away. At the end, when I compare current general managers, I will also add in the value of compensatory picks. But my primary focus is on the extra draft value that certain teams acquire through trades.”

Best and Worst Teams Over Five-Year Periods

Note a few things from this 15 year review:

General NFL observations:

• Dan Snyder’s Redskins get taken behind the woodshed in the draft.  This is another data point you could use to argue he’s the worst owner in the NFL.
• The Raiders also consistently give away value.  This helps explain their decade-long decline.
• The Patriots (surprise) are very good at maneuvering through the draft to obtain draft value.  This helps explain why they’re good every year.

Observations about the Rams

• The Rams had very good draft value acquired from 2000-04 and this foreshadowed their SB runs and division competitiveness during this 5 year span.
• The Rams had the highest draft value acquired in the division from 2005-09, yet they lost a lot of those games in those years.  Perhaps this is more of an indictment of how they spent their value and/or their terrible run of head coaches.
• The Rams are currently 2nd best currently at obtaining draft value.  The RG3 trade had the biggest impact on this number and could be considered a data outlier rather than a 5 year trend.  Jeff Fisher may be an average head coach, but Les Snead won that trade in terms of value acquired hands down.  We’ll see what they do with this value acquired.

Observations about the Cardinals

• The Cardinals did slightly submediocre from 2005-09 at adding draft value, yet the Whisenhunt/Haley/Warner partnership should be given more credit for what they accomplished with that value in winning the 2008-09 division titles and one SB run.
• The Cardinals are slightly above average at acquiring draft value currently, checking in at 13th best overall.  Keim’s responsibility for this middling rating is undetermined because he was hired in 2013.

Observations about the Seahawks

• The Seahawks obtained league leading value under Holmgren and Whitsett, which foreshadowed their rise in the division from 2000-2004.
• The Seahawks obtained league worst value under Holmgren/Mora/Ruskell (2005-09), which foreshadowed their fall into the division trash heap.
• The Seahawks are 10th best currently at obtaining draft value under John Schneider, which is nothing to sneeze at.  However they are still looking up at the two charter members of the NFC West in this category.

Observations about the 49ers

• The 49ers obtained 5th best draft value under Mariucci/Walsh, which likely covered for the 2003-04 drafts that were mangled by Terry Donahue, leading to 49er fans to call him “Terry Don’t-have-a-Clue.”
• After Terry Donahue took over through the end of the Scot McCloughan regime, the 49ers were decidedly bad at obtaining draft value.
• McCloughan’s tenure looks surprisingly bad for the draft value obtained considering all the pro-bowlers he actually drafted.  The 49ers did not win a lot during these years so the results match the chart above.
• The 49ers are 3rd best currently at obtaining draft value under Trent Baalke.  For 49er fans upset at Jed York’s petulant fight with Harbaugh, they can point to this.  They have a GM who does a terrific job at maximizing draft value.

The other interesting thing Healy notes is that the spread in draft pick value increased by 17 percent from the 2005-09 data set, and the 2010-14 data set.  This means that while teams are getting closer in terms of overall ability to identify good players, they are getting further apart in the ability to gain the draft value necessary to acquire those players.

General Managers Ranked by Acquiring Draft VALUE

This chart demonstrates that the 49ers’ Trent Baalke is the best in the league at acquiring draft value “and its honestly not even close.”  The Seahawks’ John Schneider is 10th in the league.  The Rams’ Les Snead and Cardinal’s Steve Keim do not appear on this list, which indicates they are presently toward the bottom half of the league.  Some of this could be explained by insufficient 5 year data, but Healy does not offer an explanation.

Healy concludes:

“The best GMs in the NFL have been the ones who continue to stockpile draft value. Where other GMs may be seduced by the sizzle of a flashy running back, the best GMs can get past our natural tendency to undervalue assets when it is unclear exactly what you will eventually get. It would be hard to be less sexy or more vague than “a future fourth-round pick.” While that means yawns to most of us, it spells opportunity for the GMs whose teams are the most consistent winners.”