“Got to give us what we want
Gotta give us what we need
Our freedom of speech is freedom of death
We’ve got to fight the powers that be!”
– Fight the Power, Public Enemy, (c) 1989, Columbia Records
Time for some throwdowns.
The AFC North is starting to find its identity and hierarchy, but it’s going to experience some turf wars within the division. Given the volatile nature of intra-division games, no outcome, regardless of record, is assured when any of the four AFC North residents face each other. “Throw out the record books” is a popular refrain around here, and this season will be no different.
As usual, these picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns
Thursday, October 21, 8:20 pm, Fox/NFLN
The Broncos are reeling. Since their improbable 3-0 start (albeit all against winless teams at the time), the Broncos have dropped three straight games, often in particularly ugly fashion. While a lot of their issues can be traced to injuries, there’s little on the roster to suggest this team is remotely competitive this season. Battered QB Teddy Bridgewater will presumably start while he rehabs a recent foot issue, but other than a smattering of plays that gain mildly significant yardage, this is an entirely predictable unit, one that should be easily trumped by a solid defense.
Enter the Browns, who have no such claim. Cleveland’s defensive unit has been an overall poor exercise; other than the notable pass rushing duo of DEs Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, there’s little to tout, having given up a shocking 85 points in their last two games, both losses. If Garrett and Clowney manage to get to Bridgewater – and they very well might – this unit could have a better day, but the seemingly-directionless schemes employed by defensive coordinator Joe Woods might hamper that. Offensively, QB Baker Mayfield has been contending with increased media scrutiny over his compromised left (non-throwing) shoulder and his poor performance in last week’s game, in which he was scarcely protected by two backup tackles, resulting in an overmatched interior pass rush. He’ll have the same struggling line in front of him this week and can only hope for the return of RB Nick Chubb from a calf injury, if only to provide some focus on something other than his own safety. If Chubb isn’t available, look for backups D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton to handle the bulk of the carries.
Broncos 17, Browns 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 24, 1:00 pm, CBS
Billed as “The Battle for the AFC North” by some unfortunate publications, this game nonetheless pits the division’s two best records against each other. Should the Bengals win, they’ll own a tiebreaker and an equal record against the Ravens, which may come in handy in the playoffs if this team continues to progress and stay relatively healthy. QB Joe Burrow still shows his youth on occasion by taking too much contact, but his pocket comfort level is undeniably settling down, which is bad news for the Ravens secondary as he continues to find open targets, and he has many to work with. RB Joe Mixon has been providing the offensive counterpunch the team has been anticipating from him for several years, expanding the threats this team possesses.
The Bengals, however, lack an impact defense at almost every level. This is not to say they’re bad; just that there’s no one level of the defense that’s particularly strong or that’s shined brighter than others. And that plays directly into Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s unpredictable style, which will involve a lot of audibles based on formations, and improvisation after the snap. For a young Bengals team that was beaten soundly by Jackson twice in 2020, the prognosis isn’t good, as Jackson also has a formidable defense to back up his efforts. The tipping point will be how well the depleted Baltimore secondary holds up against the Bengals’ multiple weapons. As they played well against the visiting Chargers last week, there’s always hope.
Bengals 24, Ravens 28
Bye week: Pittsburgh Steelers
Author’s Note: As I was writing this, Browns backup QB Case Keenum was designated to start in place of QB Baker Mayfield this week. Needless to say, he’ll be behind the same line, and will have the same issues. My prediction stands.
