AFC North: Week 9 Speculation

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I’m refraining from calling this a “prediction” piece this season. Predictions indicate one firmly believes something will happen and isn’t afraid to stand behind that judgment. In the NFL, nothing is certain except Roger Goodell’s poor judgment. That said, I’ll offer some form of prognostication, even if it’s lighthearted and not entirely backed up by evidence, but I really have no interest in how “correct” I’ll be.

As usual, these picks are for fun and should in no way be used for actual wagering purposes. That is, unless you want to make a ton of money in a legal forum, because we know more stuff and things about football than you do or something.

On to the games!

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)
Sunday, November 3, 1:00 pm ET, CBS
The surprising Colts are very much in the middle of the playoff race, thanks to some excellent coaching by head coach Frank Reich and his staff, and some timely defense, not to mention the contributions of backup-turned-starting QB Jacoby Brissett.  The Steelers are coming off a win over the hapless Dolphins, so it’s tough to gauge their progress due to the Dolphins’ marked ineptitude this season.  Given the Colts’ issues stopping the run, the Steelers are expected to emphasize their ground game; they may be without starting RB James Conner, so that may prove difficult.  The Colts, conversely, will attack Steelers second-string QB Mason Rudolph to force mistakes.  Given their respective strengths and weaknesses, this should be a low-scoring, ugly affair, but the AFCS-leading Colts hold an edge statistically and have a similar edge in this game.
Colts 24, Steelers 21

Cleveland Browns (2-5) @ Denver Broncos (2-6)
Sunday, November 3, 4:25 pm, CBS
These teams are confused.  The Browns are confused, befuddled, etc., about why they haven’t been more dominant on the field.  The Broncos are debating why they traded for injured QB Joe Flacco, whose less-than-inspiring performances have produced kindred haters in Baltimore and Denver.  Either way, both teams have a fair bit to prove, although the Browns probably more so.  Their frustration, as registered by a terse Baker Mayfield yesterday, is clearly driving this team, and for a group this inexperienced, that may not be a good thing.  Still, in Denver this week, calmer heads need not prevail; expect a lot of blitz and misdirection packages on defense in a (probably successful) attempt to rattle QB Brandon Allen, who appears to be a perennial bench sitter, having not taken a regular season snap in almost four NFL seasons.  The Browns could sleepwalk through this one and still win.
Browns 27, Broncos 10

New England Patriots (7-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-2) 
Sunday, November 3, 8:20 pm, NBC
Let the “chess match”, such as it is, begin.  The Patriots still rely primarily on short and intermediate quick passing routes, so disrupting QB Tom Brady’s timing is crucial; the Ravens’ pass rush is, to be kind, abysmal, so the hope is their improved secondary can buy the front seven enough time to break through Brady’s offensive line and apply some degree of pressure.  Look for a concentrated push up the middle with Ravens’ gargantuan defensive tackles Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams.  The Patriots, meanwhile, will be scheming to stop all-level threat Lamar Jackson, whose eye-popping rushing numbers pose a problem.  Expect the Patriots to commit to stopping the run to force Jackson to pass, where his numbers aren’t nearly as inspiring.  If Jackson’s able to break coverage with his arm, the Patriots’ undefeated record will be in trouble.  But I doubt it’s that easy.
Patriots 31, Ravens 27

 

Eat, drink, watch.  Enjoy!

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